Validating Ancient Way of Rainfall Prediction with the IMD Gridded Rainfall using Computational Methods over Indian Region
Keywords:
Weather Prediction, Bruhat Samhitha, Planetary position, IMD rainfallAbstract
The distribution and prediction of rainfall is very prominent for water management for agriculture. The weather prediction has been in practice since ancient times based on the changes in meteorological (wind and cloud patterns), biological and astrological (planetary positions). By making use of Indian Meteorological Department’s rainfall data for the period 1985-2015, this study mainly compares and validates the ancient method of rainfall prediction particularly during the eclipse occurrence. By making use of the ancient Sanskrit texts available in the Bruhat Samhita five rules (rule1, rule2 rule3, rule4, rule5) related to the occurrence of rainfall over the Indian region during the eclipse were summarized and framed. This study has shown that the ancient rainfall prediction didn’t match with the observational rainfall when small showers of rainfall are predicted in the ancient prediction method. Our study mainly revealed that, rule 4 and rule 5 outnumbered other rules. The Ancient Sanskrit text based rainfall prediction agrees well with the IMD rainfall observations particularly for rule 4 and rule 5 when the rainfall is seen at different regions simultaneously and uniformly distributed over a larger spatial domain.
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References
Varaaha Mihira’s Brihat Samhita
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